Top Probe (AC228398)
1 drip line · Young trees 1-2yr · Indicators: 7, 2 · Subsoil: +1.79mm · Advisory Fr 04h (Aug 21) — probe trigger rules, not calendar
Topsoil Now
+6.76 mm
Entered refill band · run-down watch day 1
Subsoil Now
+1.79 mm
SAFE · still feeding surface · −0.40 recal offset found
Flow / Tree
0.0 L
Zero Aug 11-17 — hold day 7 ✓
ETc Ratio
0.6×ETo
3.5mm/day · accel test: lag holds, no break yet
Hold day 7 ✓ — acceleration re-test: 0.6× wet-profile rate STILL holds (+6.76 inside the 5.5-7.5 band, not the 8-10 accel band). Crossed into the refill band overnight; run-down watch is live.
Runway to the 24.4mm trigger: flat 3.5mm/day → Aug 22-23; with acceleration → Aug 20. Most likely Fri 21 Aug — Pulse advisory agrees. Dose ~6 L/tree on the probe, not the calendar.
Bottom Probe (AC228108)
2 drip lines · 4-5yr trees · Indicators: 7, -2 · Subsoil: -1.63mm · Advisory Tu/We/Fr/Sa — IGNORE, violates hold
Topsoil Now
+7.41 mm
Refill band · re-wetted overnight from subsoil
Subsoil Now
-1.63 mm
WET · drain slowed to +0.10/day (glacial)
Flow / Tree
0.0 L
2 clean days Aug 15+16 · NO breach #10 ✓
Resume Gates
1/5 gates
Only 72h-dry met · gate 4 needs phosphonate
ISOLATION CONFIRMED — 2 consecutive fully clean days (Aug 15+16 incl. both 07-10h windows); breach series ended 66.2→13.6→8.0→1.8→0L. Tripwire stands down to a light daily check; any flow row before 5/5 gates = breach #10 → remove the valve.
D5/D6 still wet (deep root zone) · T5-T6 19.6-19.8°C = Phytophthora-active · flower development. Phosphonate + collar walk = EMERGENCY (~22d overdue) — gate 4 blocked without it.
7-Day Outlook (EST — station offline d71, rain-surprise caveat) · ETo 4.5-5.5
MON
23°
~0 mm
ET ~5
TUE
23°
0.0 mm
ET ~5
WED
22°
0.0 mm
ET ~4.5
THU
24°
0.0 mm
ET ~5
FRI
24°
TOP DOSE
ET ~5.5
SAT
24°
0.0 mm
ET ~5.5
SUN
24°
0.0 mm
ET ~5.5
Risk Matrix
| Issue | Sev | When | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phytophthora — deep profile still wet, T5-T6 19.6-19.8°C, flowering | CRIT | NOW | Phosphonate + collar walk TODAY (~22d overdue, 8th cycle) — no further deferral |
| Installer split not booked — zero-pressure window closes Wed Aug 19 | HIGH | NOW | Site date in writing — Mon 17 to Wed 19 Aug only |
| Weather station blind day 71 — summer rainfall season imminent | HIGH | WEEK | Book repair or order replacement before September |
| Panel root cause undocumented (Aug 9 no-show, Aug 12 edit, Aug 14 stop) | MOD | NOW | Panel photo — 5 minutes, 7th cycle open |
| Top run-down to 24.4mm trigger ~Aug 20-22 at rising ETo | MOD | WEEK | Daily run-down watch · dose ~6L on the probe trigger only |
| Bottom valve — isolation confirmed but unphotographed; relapse possible | MOD | WEEK | Light daily flow check · any row before 5/5 gates = breach #10 → remove valve |